Playoff Predictions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans

Tennessee is a terrible team. There defense is average and their offense is 23rd in the league. They have lost 3 out of their last 4 games and have no momentum. While the Chiefs, have won their last 4 games and are on a tear. Kansas City’s experience and their talent in key positions is why I am picking them. Alex Smith will do enough and Andy Reid will have a great game plan. The Chiefs have the 5th ranked offense and which will make up for their poor defense, which is why Kansas City will end the Titans season.

Atlanta Falcons vs. LA Rams

I feel like the public is overzealous on the Rams. They moved to LA, have the new coach who turned Jared Goff into a viable QB and have been putting up a ton of points in games, yet their return to the playoffs will be spoiled by the Falcons. The Falcons have playoff experience and will win this game on the road. The Falcons have a better QB and Julio Jones is the best player on the field. The Falcons offense’s problem has been scoring points, not getting yards and I think that will give this weekend. Their defense is significantly better than the Rams, which will help deal with Gurley. Ultimately, I trust Matt Ryan in this game more than I do Goff and that offense. and pick the Falcons to win outright.

Predictions of the Raiders’ Demise have been Exaggerated

The headlines:

“Football Outsider predicts Raiders have worse record in 2017”
“Six ways the Raiders’ offseason could go off the rails in 2017”
“Six reasons why Raiders might not meet high expectations”
“Raiders hope grand expectations for season don’t instead deliver heartache”

Talking heads and columnists from coast to coast have been talking about the fact that last year 7 close games went in the Raiders favor and Lady Luck is now on vacation. The Raiders were not as good as advertised last year how they could have easily been 10-6 or 9-7. Well, those calling for the Raiders demise are going to be found wanting.

The columnists predictions act as if they are revealing that Bruce Willis’s character is actually dead in the Sixth Sense. The research that shows us that teams with a bunch of close wins the year before sees a correction the following year have been well talked about. We are aware this happens. We don’t need you telling us to expect an 8-8 season and to temper our expectations. After a playoff drought over a decade we aren’t tempering anything besides are cutlasses.

Secondly, we don’t expect to have 7 close games this year. Our offense has been upgraded and we will be lethal, not to mention that last year we learned how to win close games. This year we will learn how to keep games from being close. Carr, Cooper, and Crabtree have more time with each other, which breeds chemistry. The addition of Marshawn Lynch will help balance their offense and help convert short 3rd down and goal line plays. This will help us put away games that were too close for comfort last year. Besides, Whether the Raiders win more games or not than last year isn’t the important thing. Whether they are better than last year is important and I predict improvement. So the rest of analysts and columnists save us from your Raider’s demise takes and let us enjoy the Raider’s revival.

McGregor vs. Mayweather

Saturday night was an exciting night. The matchup that America demanded was finally delivered. Despite what some may tell you, that fight delivered what the majority of people rooted for. A chance to see two professionals from different sport worlds collide in an entertaining fashion. No surprise the boxer won the boxing match. It was an enjoyable fight. I went in on it with some family and enjoyed seeing two entertainers entertain. After I have thought about it for a while I have come away with a couple of things.

McGregor had no shot

McGregor won 3 rounds, but Glass Joe could have won those 3 rounds. Mayweather hardly threw any punches and did two things. He was studying McGregor and secondly he was letting McGregor tire out. Which is surprising to me because McGregor fell for it. McGregor tired wasting big punches on Mayweather’s gloves. He did connect enough to entertain, but they clearly didn’t affect Mayweather. I don’t understand how McGregor’s team hadn’t prepared him for this. We have all seen Rocky III when Clubber Lang wastes his energy hitting Rocky’s gloves, until he is too tired and Rocky finishes him the next round. This is more or less what Mayweather did and it worked great. Of course, it was only a matter of time until a Rocky reference came up. You can’t avoid it.

McGregor never won another round after those first 3 and Mayweather worked him over pretty good the rest of the fight. From that point on it was the fight most expected. A professional beating on an amateur with a lot of heart. McGregor had a little bit of momentum into the 8th round in the beginning, but beside that, when Mayweather decided to box it was over.

Referee stepping in

At the point the referee stopped the fight, the fight was over. Mayweather was connecting on haymaker after haymaker and McGregor was stumbling like a 9 month old. The disappointing thing, was he was never knocked down, which I would have liked to see. The other part is the referee called the match after Mayweather barely grazed him instead of after a meaty fist sandwich. Had he stopped the fight 10 seconds early it would have felt right, but the end felt anticlimactic.

I will note, that if hits to the face are as damaging as the science experts like to make it sound, the ref probably did save McGregor damage. He was certainly going to take more and more of a beating.

Take Aways

It was fun and I think I could watch boxing with some regularity if they didn’t make it so difficult to watch. The fighters would make less, but they really do need a commissioner of boxing, like Dana White for MMA. It would do wonders for the sport.

I wish I would have emptied my 401K for this fight and made a quick 20%. Everyone was right, there was no way McGregor was going to win this fight. Also, getting “lucky” and knocking Mayweather out is much harder said then done. Clearly, no one in the previous 49 fights were able to, not sure why so many thought McGregor would be able to.

It was fun and worth the $25 that I spent on the fight. It was a good time and a perfect warm up to the College Football season this weekend.

Guaranteed 20 %

McGregor vs. Mayweather

The spectacle comes to a head tonight and is overhyped and despite the logical parity, I am excited. It seems that I am not the only one that wants to see this fight, America demanded this fight. Every analyst that I have heard has said they expect Mayweather to win easily. Some put in the caveat that maybe McGregor will get lucky, despite 49 other professionals failed. Then again, there might actually be an overseas millionaire that wants to leave his fortune to me, I could get lucky, right?

One thing I always come back to is that there is a reason they play the games. The 2007 Giants upsetting the Patriots, the 1980 USA Hockey Team, Appalachian State over Michigan, Utah over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, Cavs down 1-3 in the finals, or an 0-3 Red Sox comeback over the Yankees. Upsets happen far too often when logic dictates otherwise.

Also, wouldn’t an MMA fighter just be inherently tougher than a boxer? They are taking knees, kicks, and punches that have to land harder than overly padded gloves. When McGregor beat Diaz after going up a weight class he showed incredible moxie. There was a massive amount of punishment and McGregor won the battle. So, is it crazy to think that McGregor will be able to endure and get Mayweather? Yeah, it probably is, but we can hope right?

I hope McGregor can win. Mayweather’s history of domestic violence makes him the villain in this fight. McGregor’s no saint, but he does have a feel good story that is easy to root for. Nevertheless the spectacle may be more fun than the fight, so live it up. Today will be a fun day. College football opener, and a fight that America demanded. Carpè Díem.

BYU Prediction for 2017

Finally! It has been a long time since Brady came back and buried the Falcons like the New York Times buries a retraction. The football drought finally ends this Saturday. This is kind of a college football appetizer, but I am so hungry I am not being picky. Football is back!!!

What are the experts expectations?

Phil Steele, by his own admission, is the most accurate predicter of college football. I’ll touch on his two different ratings. His first ranking is where he predicts the final rankings at the end of the year. He has BYU ranked #27. Meaning that after the end of the bowl games, he thinks BYU will be ranked #27. Notables on BYU’s schedule is Wisconsin #10, LSU #13, Boise St. #45.

In Phil Steele’s power poll, which ranks best teams, not according to where they will rank, but how good they are. BYU is ranked #33. Other notables are Utah #43, LSU #13, Wisconsin #11, Boise St. #56, Utah St. 104.

In the AP poll BYU is #38 with Utah and Boise being ranked higher at 27 & 29 respectively. The coaches poll has BYU #42 with #25 Utah, #29 Boise St., and they even have Mississippi St. #35.

Their strength of schedule is #84. Similar to other years they have about 5 good games, and the rest are cupcakes. The tough games are: @LSU (technically neutral) Utah, Wisconsin, Boise State, @Miss St. (only because they are SEC). They have Utah, Wisconsin, and Boise St. at home. They are scheduled for 13 games.

BYU 2017 Prediction: 11-2

The main reason I believe that they will win 11 games is because of Tanner Mangum. Mangum is an elite QB and will carry this team to a great season. They will be closer to winning 12, then winning 10. This is Mangum’s 2nd year under Coach Sitake, with Detmer as his offensive coordinator. He played great when Taysom Hill was hurt, and I am expecting results as good or better than Max Hall and John Beck.

So, yeah, I believe they will beat Utah. I understand that none of my kids have ever seen a BYU win over Utah, but c’mon, Utah’s running a high tempo offense? Utah is a punch-you-in-the-mouth type of team, and trying pretend their something else won’t work. My only concern is that BYU’s receivers and running backs aren’t like last years, a good QB will equalize it out, which is why I trust Mangum to lead them to an 11-2 season.