Posted on

Fox’s Colin Cowherd’s Hot Take

Colin Cowherd’s Hot Take

Jim Rome on his radio show:

“Hot Take…, they’re bad for the NBA and he’s just not that good. You know what a hot take is? A hot take is finding something that is almost almost universally accepted or thought of as good and running the other way. Or, or, a hot take is finding something that is universally hated and treated with disdain and then putting yourself out there and saying, “Best thing ever!” Oh, no, that is great, that’s great, hot take, I will give you a hot take, OJ Simpson, good dude, good dude, just a good dude with a bad rap, hot take. I will give you another hot take, slamming your hand in a car door, it’s a good time. Makes you feel alive bro. Brother you are not alive until you have slammed your hand in your car door. Good times. There’s a hot take. Let me give you another hot take. A hot take like, Stephen Curry is not that good. That’s a hot take…stop hot taking it. I’ll give you a hot take, Toronto-Miami is the best series ever. There is your hot take.”

Steph Curry was just announced as the MVP of the NBA 2015-16 season. The big difference between this year and other years is that this is the first year that the MVP was unanimous. Before the announcement came, Russillo & Kanell on their radio show was hoping that a voter wouldn’t spoil it, when Curry is so obvious. There always is a contrarian and votes for a Penny Hardaway, instead of a Michael Jordan. Even the Sultan of Swat, Babe Ruth, wasn’t a unanimous hall of fame candidate.

The fact that 131 basketball media members were able to agree, without one of them dissenting and voting for LeBron James or Kwahi Leonard was a relief. In the “hot take” sports world, we knew someone would take that position, this time it was Colin Cowherd.

Colin Cowherd’s Case

“I told you when Chris Paul got hurt the Clippers will not win another game. Season is over. Chris Paul is the heart and soul of the LA Clippers. To me the two most valuable players are LeBron 1 and Chris Paul. Think about this Michael Jordan is the best basketball player of all time. The Bulls went from 57 wins to 55 after he left. LeBron in Cleveland they won 61 games he leaves they win 19, then 21, then 24, then low 30’s, he comes back mid 50’s. That is valuable. This league doesn’t have, this league has never had a single player as valuable as LeBron James. Magic Johnson as great as he was, no question that he mattered, but the Lakers always get stars at the time Lakers they were still the mos glamorous franchise in the league, they would have won a lot of games and did before he got there. To me Magic is the 2nd best player that has ever played in the league, so to me Steph Curry is not the MVP in the league he may be among many things… If you take LeBron out of the Cavs I am not sure they would be favored in a game the rest of the year…College basketball has this right…they have player of the year. I would vote Steph Curry player of the year he has been the most talked about the most exhilarating and he really is changing the game with 3 pointers, that is all that we have now, look at Cleveland that is all they do is shoot 3 pointers. If you want to call it player of the year I will give it to Steph, but Most Valuable? Nope, he is not the most valuable player in the league.”

Colin’s appeals to word valuable, he says it should mean the player whose teammates need him the most. Sure the Warriors are deep so they miss any single individual less then teams with a roster of mediocrity. For example, LeBron last year during the playoffs is more valuable then the LeBron this year in the playoffs, for the mere fact that they have Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving healthy, according to the logic, LeBron is less valuable than last year. The MVP is supposed to go to the best player, not the best player with the worst team. The track record of the award has proved this for the entire history.

Here are two other National Radio guys, Cowherd’s peers, on him (essentially) who want to take an opinion that Steph Curry, doesn’t deserve the MVP.

Jim Rome’s Take:

“It is the epitome of the “Hot Take” It’s not that good Rome, overhyped and overrated hey and while we are at it they are really bad for the NBA that is a bad thing for the NBA nobody wants to see a team of incredibly skilled guys that play extremely well together and are unselfish and maybe have the best chemistry together that you are ever going to see and on top of that they are unbelievable guys…

…I think I can see the other side of almost anything.. I can pick either side of any argument and argue it on just about anything I don’t see the other side of this I don’t see the other side of Golden State is awesome, I don’t see the other side of Steph Curry is a brilliant player. I can’t make the argument the other way I can sit here and say, “You know what, I can see why you don’t like that guy, or I can see where maybe you think that guy is not that great or I can see why you’re not down with them or I can see why you think Golden state isn’ one of the best ever. I can’t see the other side of that I can’t make that other argument…and I can see the other side of almost everything but, not the other side of Golden State is a great team, I don’t see that, yet you hot takers keep coming in with it.”

Rome is basically calling Cowherd “Hot Take Guy”.

Ryan Russillo from ESPN Russillo and Kanell gave his opinion on Cowherd’s Hot Take:

“I get the, Hey, let me do something and people will have me on, but i still don’t understand what the real value of that is. You can play in the moment, “Well, Hey look I, uh 17 radio requests, I can tell you what, It doesn’t… you don’t get to cash those in for something, you don’t get a vacation property out of it. Your company doesn’t, go, “Hey, you know, you get a raise.” So even though we always do, “Hey man it was worth it look at all the attention you got”, tell me where that equates to real value later on in that persons career, you actually just become known as the guy that voted for somebody else”

The problem that I had is when the next day he doubled down and explained the reason his opinion was dissenting is because controversy makes you a big star. In order to stand out in a fragmented society, he needed to be controversial like Bryce Harper, The Kardashians, LeBron, and others. I want to hear opinions that are opinions because of how you believe, not because you want to be controversial. Here are the quotes that led me to believe that Colin went this way to be controversial.

“I am going to Double Down on ‘Steph Curry is not the MVP’ and this is how I am going to do it.”

“I don’t care what anyone says about Skip Bayless, he moves the needle, he is coming over here.”

“Steph is just unbelievably gifted offensively, another component of this is that LeBron James is not beloved. Steph Curry is non-threatening so people love Steph Curry, he is boyish, fun, cute, adorable, nobody hates Steph Curry, LeBron is more polarizing. “

“Kirt Herbstreit said to me once, “How do you deal with all the hate mail”, you don’t get much of it Kirk, I said secondly, who cares. Like, if you look at America, and say who are the biggest stars in America, Fox News, love and hate, Trump, Lebron, Tom Brady, Cam Newton, Bryce Harper, Bill O’Reilly, Simon Cowell, the Kardashians, if you want to break through in a fragmented society some of the people that are going to consume you won’t like you and remember we are all, if you think about what you hate in America it is fear based, hate comes from fear. You fear what you can’t be, you fear what you can’t stop, you fear what you get what you can’t have, it is all psychology you can look it up. So to break through in society, our Bryce Harper is the most loved and hated. I had dinner last night with somebody that has worked at Fox News for 20 years, he said Bill O’Reilly gets a 1000x’s more negative and positive reactions, if you are going to break through you’re going to be polarizing.”

I completely agree with Rome and Russillo. Cowherd seems to be wanting the attention for going the opposite way and to create a little noise. Why be like everyone else? Think differently. Well, being right is more important that being different and if there was a compelling case that most people have missed the boat on, I am all ears. But, there isn’t. Jason Whitlock filled in for Colin the day after Kobe scored 60 and decided to take the day and rip Kobe all day. Colin came in the next day and defended Whitlock saying about how many podcasts were downloaded. Sure, I agree that controversy gets clicks, but it seems to be short term thinking, because you may get the spotlight, but it loses you respect.

Cowherd has enough goodwill in the tank and credibility to outlast any number of controversial opinions. The reason is because he has worked hard and has many smart opinions and is entertaining to listen to. He has earned this. A “Hot Take” for the sake of a hot take isn’t going to make me stop listening to him, but it is a withdrawal out of his bank account of respect as opposed to a deposit.

* Additional quotes supporting that Cowherd wants to be controversial:

“Steph is loved at this point in his career.”

“Remember what really got people upset when LeBron and Dwayne Wade and Bosh had their press conference saying they were going to win 7 championships. Nash won the MVP 2x’s even though he wasn’t the most talented guy, it was because without Nash the Suns were terrible. Golden State set an NBA record 3 point shooting record when Curry was hurt and that is what he does better than everyone else. Curry has 8 other guys that are great and needed less than LeBron. You will see most of Curry’s impact in 10 years when all the 9 year old boys who watch Curry and want to be able to shoot like him. Everyone now shoots three.”

“The two highest paid athletes in America are Floyd Meriweather and Lebron James. I would argue that American Tennis could use a villain. I could argue that Nascar could use a villain, most sports that are struggling don’t have a villain. College Football is great, Alabama is a villain, ND is a villain, USC is a villain. NFL has all sorts of villains, the Patriots, Cowboys, Cam Newton, Tom Brady villains. The NBA has one and LeBron is it. Lebron is the only villain in the NBA. The moment he went back to Cleveland you kind of lost the villain. The NBA was better when LeBron was in Miami,, the city loved him and the nation hated him. Curry got the MVP I don’t think he is top two MVP. “

“We love points. Wilt was an underachiever, Bill Russell was more consistent and won 11. Kobe Bryant only won 68% of games when he scored 40 or more. They won 76% with Shaq. When players go off they don’t win as much. Golden State is more vinable than anyone in the NBA. LeBron, Chris Paul aren’t as vinable as Westbrook, Griffin, and Steph. We get seduced by moments, points and vines. Draymont is the true best player in the series and is having an all time great series. Draymont is always ready to play. All we want to talk about is Stephs 17 point overtime.”

“We fell in love with Marbury, he won only 44% of his games. JJ Watt is great, but not as valuable. Andy Dalton has more of an effect than him. If you take Steph Curry off the Warriors and they are the 2nd best team in the East. Cavs wouldn’t even be a playoff team in the West. Curry’s shooting, ball handling, iq, feet. We fell in love with Derrick Rose as he won MVP and LeBron shut Rose down in the Heat/Bulls series. LeBron outplayed Steph in the finals last year. Steph is easy to love. He is the apple stock, LeBron is the freight train,, or exxon mobile. Kardashian is a bigger star than Jeremy Irons. LeBron will be known as the best and most important player for 15 years. Steph is amazing, most exciting player, LeBron is the MVP of the league.”

Posted on

NBA Finals MVP: If not LeBron, then Curry

The scorecard, 7-4, for the NBA Finals MVP was between Andre Iguodala and LeBron James with a glaring omission… Stephen Curry, who didn’t receive a single vote.  There have been differing opinions all over the board.

Neil Greenberg for the Washington Post:

“Iguodala finished the series with averages of 16.3 points, four assists and 5.8 rebounds, shooting 52.1 percent from the field. However, he wasn’t the most valuable player on his own team or in any one game, let alone the entire series... According to Michael Beuoy’s “kitchen sink” win probability added, which quantifies the win probability contributions for every box score stat we can measure and attribute at the player level, Iguodala ranked fourth overall in the Finals, behind James, Curry and Draymond Green.”

Jack Winter for uproxx

But Iguodala was merely the biggest beneficiary of Curry’s all-encompassing threat and Draymond Green’s all-court versatility. Why was he afforded so much space to operate in the halfcourt? Due to Cleveland’s ultra-aggressive ball-screen coverage on Curry. And why were the Cavaliers forced to guard him with an overmatched big man? Because Green is a stout enough rebounder, rim-protector, and individual defender to not be frequently outmuscled by Mozgov and Tristan Thompson.

81.5 percent of Iguodala’s scores versus Cleveland were assisted. The nearest defender on all but nine of his 37 made field goals was Mozgov, Thompson or 34-year-old James Jones. Those stats, obviously, have the fingerprints of Curry and Green all over them.

He also noted:

…To be fair, Iguodala did a yeoman’s job defending James. When they shared the court James had a net rating of minus-15.5 and was held to a true shooting percentage of 46.4 percent, which skyrocketed to a net rating of plus-18.8 and 50.9 percent true shooting when they didn’t.

Eric Freeman writing for Yahoo

However, there was no doubt which Warrior was most deserving of the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP Award as Golden State closed out its first title in 40 years in Tuesday’s Game 6 win at Quicken Loans Arena. Iguodala was the Warriors’ most consistent player of the series, averaging 16.3 points (52.1 percent from the field, 40 percent from deep), 5.8 rebounds and four assists over 36.8 minutes per game while serving as Golden State’s primary defender on James. Plus, Iguodala’s entry into the starting lineup in Game 4 in place of All-Defensive Second Team honoree Andrew Bogut helped turn the series to the Warriors’ favor.

SI.com’s Staff say the decision was obvious:

Lee Jenkins wrote:  “If LeBron James doesn’t win MVP, that’s essentially an admission that a player on the losing team can’t win the award, which is fine, except then the name should probably be changed..

Chris Manix:  “It takes unique circumstances to give the MVP award to a player on a losing team, but this is a unique situation. Even in defeat, James has been the most overwhelmingly dominant player.”

Michael Rosenberg:  “The title is “Most Valuable Player,” not “Most Valuable Player On The Winning Team,” and anybody watching this series understands James has been far more valuable than Steph Curry, Andre Iguodala or anybody else on Golden State’s roster.”

If LeBron had won the MVP it would have been deserving and justified.  He played out of his mind.  He had basically the New York Knicks roster and won two games in the finals.  My hangup with Iguodala having won the award, is he didn’t carry the team.  Steph carried the team.  Steph Curry came into his own at the end of game 3.  That is the main reason they didn’t lose another game, it wasn’t because Andre Iguodala was in the lineup, it was because MVP Steph returned.

To suggest that Iguodala did some sort of wizardry guarding LeBron James, when LeBron garnered votes for Finals MVP on the losing team seems to get lost.  He didn’t do a MVP job, else LeBron wouldn’t have been so impactful.  The fact that LeBron didn’t shoot as well with Andre Iguodala guarding him can be chalked up to a couple of different things.  LeBron was gassed by the 4th game.  He was playing an inordinate amount of minutes carrying a terrible team.  They also played from behind a lot of the time in the later games which fosters ineffeciency.  Andre Iguodala isn’t as good of a defender as Kawhi Leonard who couldn’t keep LeBron’s efficiency down, meaning LeBron wasn’t slowed down by Iguodala, but by the process.  Curry was huge in 4th quarters and stepped up when needed.  He garnered the most attention, and delivered biggest when needed.

If not LeBron, then Curry.

Posted on

Horse Racing has a Rivalry

California Chrome loses to shared beliefShared Belief’s Jockey, Mike Smith:

“I can’t even describe that performance,” Smith said. “He ranks right up there with the top five horses I have ever been on, with room to grow. It really was so impressive. There’s no telling what this horse can do or the potential that he can reach. I think he still has room to grow.”

Horses, California Chrome and Shared Belief clashed last Saturday at Santa Anita and the race lived up to the hype.  California Chrome was winning coming off the last turn but was passed by Shared Belief in the last stretch making an exciting finish.  It was great to see the matchup after the last race was spoiled at the Breeder’s Cup Classic.  View the race here.

I understand it is February, but Horse racing was the best in sports entertainment this weekend.  It’s great when rivalry match ups deliver, and it did.

*Fyi— Radio Great, Jim Rome, is part owner of Shared Belief.

Posted on

The Heads and Tails of Pete Carroll’s decision

HeadsMichael Silver NFL.com

Carroll, with one remaining timeout, did the math and erred on the side of ensuring a maximum amount of chances to get the ball across the goal line while limiting the chances that the Pats would have enough time to counter.

Bill Barnwell presents the following case:

If you’re thinking about the game coming down to those three plays, you can also piece together a case that second down is the best time to throw the ball. As Wilson took that fateful second-down snap, there were 26 seconds left and Seattle had one timeout. Let’s pretend for a moment that the Seahawks decide to run the ball on second down. If they don’t get it, they have to call timeout, probably with about 22 seconds left. That means they’re stuck passing on third down with virtually no chance of running the ball, because it would be too difficult to line up after a failed run.

On the other hand, by throwing on second down, you could get two cracks at running the football while providing some semblance of doubt for the Patriots. If Wilson’s pass on second down is incomplete (and he avoids a sack, which seems likely given his ability to scramble), the clock stops with something like 20 seconds to go. That means you can run the ball on third down, use your final timeout, and then run the ball again on fourth down. All three plays come with the possibility of either throwing or running, which prevents the Patriots from selling out against one particular type of play.

…[Runs] scored 54.1 percent of the time and resulted in turnovers 1.5 percent of the time, while passes got the ball into the end zone 50.1 percent of the time and resulted in turnovers 1.9 percent of the time. In a vacuum, the decision between running and passing on the 1-yard line is hardly indefensible, because both the risk and the reward are roughly similar.

The key phrase there, of course, is “in a vacuum.” This wasn’t a vacuum.

Justin Wolfers, for the New York Times makes a case that Carroll did the right thing according to game theory.

The key insight of game theory for an N.F.L. coach is that when you think about what choice you should make, you need to also consider the response from the opposing coach, understanding that he is also thinking strategically. This line of thinking suggests that you should not necessarily call a run play, even if you’re blessed with a great running back.

Tails

Ian O’Connor from ESPN hammers Pete Carroll’s decision

Carroll just had to make a decision any Pop Warner coach worth his whistle and drill cones would have made. Lynch was in full you-know-what mode, barreling his way through the New England Patriots and carrying the Seahawks to the league’s first two-peat since Belichick and Tom Brady pulled it off in a different life. Lynch already had 102 rushing yards and a touchdown to his name, and he had just planted Seattle on the Patriots’ 1-yard line.

…Instead of notarizing his standing as Belichick’s equal, Peter Clay Carroll made the dumbest and most damaging call in Super Bowl history.

…Gregg Popovich had Tim Duncan on the bench near the end of that disastrous Game 6 loss to Miami a couple of years ago. Grady Little left Pedro Martinez on the mound in that Game 7 in 2003 at Yankee Stadium. Rick Pitino didn’t put a man on Grant Hill for that three-quarters-court pass to Christian Laettner that decided Duke-Kentucky in 1992 — maybe the greatest college game ever played.But this was the mother of all screwups. Pete Carroll, the successor to Dick Clark as the world’s oldest teenager, got all silly and reckless at the worst possible time.

He cost his team the Super Bowl, and there was nothing even remotely fun about it.

Michael Silver for Michael Silver for NFL.com

When I asked receiver Doug Baldwin, in a quiet conversation near his locker, if he was shocked by Carroll’s decision to throw, he shook his head and said, “Come on, man — you’ve got common sense, too. … We have nobody to blame but us. My first thought was that we were gonna run it in — but coaches, they’re the ones that they know it better than us.”

Seattle linebacker Bruce Irvin was even more pointed, telling me, “We beat ’em, bro. We beat ’em. … I’m speechless. Best back in the league, and the 1-yard-line? It wasn’t even the 1 — it was like half a yard. I will never understand that, bro. I will never understand it. I will never understand. …

“When Jermaine caught that ball, I felt it was meant to be for us. Oh, no doubt — we’re gonna score. Beast Mode. Beast Mode! Best back on the (expletive) planet. That’s crazy!”

You can present the arguments and reasons why Carroll called a pass that you want.  I, honestly, think that they make a lot of sense.  The arguments are well thought out and appear reasonable.  So why such the outrage?  After the most amazing catch since David Tyree, the entire world knew that game was over.  The inevitability of Marshawn Lynch scoring a touchdown with 4 consecutive run plays and giving Tom Brady three spectacular Super Bowl losses, left Patriot fans dead inside, because it was as sure as Kim Kardashian’s 3rd divorce.  Some thought they should let Lynch in the end zone and try to score again.  Nobody thought they should pass.  Everyone was right.  The coach was wrong.

This is the reason for the outrage.  This is the reason why Pete Carroll is getting blasted.  Keep it simple Coach.  Feed the beast.

Posted on

Is Tom Brady Lying?

Purpose:  To determine if Tom Brady had 11 of 12 footballs deflated below NFL regulations.

Why Tom Brady Is Guilty

The crux of this accusal is 11 of 12 footballs were deflated under the set NFL guidelines, after they were deemed at 12.5 psi by the games referees.  We don’t know how these footballs became deflated, but we do know that they registered below 12.5 psi when they were checked at halftime of the AFC championship game.

The fact that Tom Brady benefits the most by having the football under regulated psi, he is under the most scrutiny.  It would affect him the most and he would gain the greatest advantage with an under inflated football.   To suggest somehow that someone else would deflate the footballs without the order from Tom Brady would venture into conspiracy theory.  While Tom Brady had a press conference and denied that he had anything to do with the deflated footballs, these are the reasons we don’t believe him.

According to a report by Sharp Football Analysis says the Average team fumbles every 105 plays.  The Patriots average 187, the next closest team is 140.  Colin Cowherd tells us that if you listen to Vegas they will tell you that turnovers are very often arbitrary and if a team has a lot of turnovers the previous year, it will likely equal themselves out the next year.  For an outdoor team that often plays in inclement weather the deflated football is the reason for the outlier.

Tom Brady is notorious for his attention to detail.  Like his coach, he spends countless hours watching tape and preparing to play his best.  He commits himself to perform to the best of his ability and tactics that help him he implements.  In his press conference he stated he preferred his football at 12.5 psi, he said it is perfect.  Clearly the game footballs used in the 1st half were under inflated.  If he preferred an exact 12.5 psi than he would have said something when he handled the football and it wasn’t “perfect”.  An artist likes his tools a certain way and when they aren’t he is the first one to notice.  If 12.5 psi is perfect, why wouldn’t he notice and demand a ball at 12.5 psi.

To believe that Tom Brady’s perfect ball is 12.5 psi it would fly in the face of an interview he had earlier when he admitted he likes a deflated football.  “When Gronk scores… he spikes the ball and he deflates the ball. I love that, because I like the deflated ball.

A football attendant was seen going into a bathroom with the footballs and 90 seconds later was leaving the bathroom.  A bathroom is the only secure place that a ball boy could go without cameras.  Also, as has been proven, this is more than enough time to deflate 11 footballs, with a bag and all.

Multiple QB’s have all said that the footballs are only going to be prepared the way that the QB wants them prepared.   No one is going to change them.  There is a long line of all ex-NFL players that believe that he isn’t being honest.  Some of these include Joe Montana, Mark Brunnell, Troy Aikman, Jerome Bettis, Brian Dawkins, Chris Canni, and Frank Tarkelton.

In short Brady is lying and had something to do with the deflation of the 11 footballs in the AFC Championship.

Why Tom Brady Is Telling the Truth

There are a lot of people claiming that Tom Brady is lying.  There has yet to be anyone that has produced evidence that is more than circumstantial.  We know that 11 of 12 footballs were deflated.  But, exactly by how much and the criteria in which they were deflated we still don’t know.  All evidence seems pretty circumstantial and there is no “smoking” gun.

It is a fact that you use a formula to figure out pressure.  One of these variables is temperature and a change in temperature will in fact change the pressure.  If is scientifically evident that the pressure in the footballs can change due to a change in temperature.  Brady likes his footballs at 12.5 psi.  Andrew Luck may in fact like his footballs more than the 12.5 psi.  If this is the case that it would make sense why the footballs for the Colts weren’t deflated under the regulated pressure.

The NFL has a procedure to check the footballs before the game.  They inspect and check the pressure of the footballs to see if they are regulation.  It isn’t the quarterbacks job to make sure that the pressure in the football is regulation.  It is the referee’s job to make sure that the footballs are qualified.  They have procedures to prevent people from messing with the footballs.

Also, Tom Brady has given a press conference stating that he didn’t do anything to the footballs to deflate them.  He stated that he had nothing to do with the deflation of footballs.  His word should count for something.   Bill Belichick and Bob Kraft came out strong defying the league to prove that they did something wrong.  The fact that they have drawn a line in the sand and challenged the league to find wrong doing, shows that they in fact haven’t done anything wrong and support the fact that Tom Brady isn’t lying.

Opinon

I think that the way that footballs are prepared has been pretty loose in the league.  Tom Brady likes his footballs a little lower than regulated psi.  I think that the Patriots had their footballs prepared like they always do and that they normally have them a little lower in psi.  I think the referees checked the footballs by squeezing them and not by actually testing them with a psi monitor.  I think the temperature changes the psi.  Maybe not lbs of psi, but enough to be able to test a difference.  I think this is the case of the NFL not managing the process close enough, and getting caught when the public has an outrage.  It’s the referees job to make sure that balls are at 12.5 psi.  If they don’t do their job then maybe the Patriots were able to have a football a little lower in psi.  This isn’t a case where the Patriots are taking corners, but the NFL taking corners.

Research

Charles P. Pierce;   Felice J. Freyer; Ben Volin; John Breech; Paul Newberry; Roxanne Jones; Colin Cowherd; Bill Simmons