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Super Bowl Prediction

Super Bowl 51.  I have listened to many sports podcasts and have been reading article after article all week.  Talked to my friends and during radio row I have heard many current and former players and analysts weigh in.  Which is what brings me to my opinion:

The Patriots Cover

Of course, there was no way I was going to pick any other team.  But, the real question is, “Do I always pick the Patriots because I like being right, or becuase I like them?”  Who knows, nevertheless they are my pick.

The Patriots have a weak schedule and haven’t been tested this year.  Their best win was against the Steelers last week in the AFC Championship and they dominated.  Their defense held the Steelers offense to less than 20  points and dominated the game from start to finish.  The Steelers, like the Falcons, had a prolific offense.  Back in 2001 the Patriots stopped the greatest show on turf and upset them.  Many would point out that the Patriots defense was the strength, which held the Rams to 17 points.  There is reason to belive that this Falcons team is comparable.

While, I agree that this Patriots defense isn’t as good as that years, their offense certainly is.  Brady and Belichick have now played in 6 of these and have won 4 of them.  They have dynamic receivers and running backs and have been able to play successfully against many teams.  The Patriots defense will hold the Falcons to under 30 and I believe the Patriots will score more than 30.

Many have pointed out that the Falcons defense  played well over the last part of the season.  Their opponents were 2nd and 3rd tier teams.  Green Bay last week was depleted and this week they are going to face the greatest quarterback of all time.  I understand, Ryan doesn’t have to beat the legacy of Tom Brady today, just his performance, but I doubt that he will be able to be as effective against the Patriots defense as Brady will be against the Falcons defense.

Brady will take advantage of the young Falcon players and will be the undisputed greatest of all time.  Go Pats!

 

 

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How Belichick will attack Atlanta in Super Bowl 51

Belichick on Mike Lombardi

Mike Lombardi for the Ringer:

“Belichick’s first quarter will be all about building a lead and learning Atlanta’s plan. Taking away Julio Jones, eliminating the big play, setting the edge, creating the lead early, stopping the run — those are not independent thoughts. Belichick ties them together and makes them work together. If football were as simple as “taking away what the opponent does best,” then we wouldn’t be constantly bemoaning the lack of quality NFL coaching. Bill Belichick has lasted this long because he knows football is more complicated than that.”

I love listening to Mike Lombardi and reading him.  He spent  time working with Bill Belichick in Cleveland with the Browns and in New England with the Patriots.  He seems to be very knowledgeable and Belichick himself said that Lombardi is one of the smartest football guys.  I’ll be looking for this gameplan on Sunday to see if he was right, and to see if the Patriots will be able to execute the gameplan.

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Ranking Patriots Super Bowl Teams


Charles Curtis for USA Today:

7.  2003 (against Carolina Panthers)
“they just barely eked out a Super Bowl win over Jake Delhomme (he had a pretty great game, to be fair) and the Carolina Panthers.”

6.  2001 (against St. Louis)
“The first team of the dynasty obviously sits toward the bottom because Brady was a rookie pushed into action when Drew Bledsoe went down.

5.  2011 (Giants)
“Another team that caught fire at the end of the season, only to run into the New York Giantsfor a second time in the Super Bowl. But the defense was just average, finishing 15th in points allowed that year.”

4.  2016 (Falcons)
“Are they really that good or is the competition weak? That explains why they’re smack dab in the middle of this list.”

3.  2014 (Seahawks)
“…Yes, they were one play away from losing the Super Bowl. But it’s hard to argue with a defense that could do it all”

2.  2004 (Eagles)
“When I think of the Patriots dynasty, this is the team I’ll think of.”

1.  2007 (Giants)
“If the 16-0 Pats hadn’t run into the Giants’ pass rush and the Helmet Catch, this squad would be in the conversation for greatest team in NFL history.”

Going back over these Super Bowls you realize that the Patriots have never won an “easy” Super Bowl.  All of these Super Bowls were games late into the 4th quarter, being decided by 4 points or less.  The endings of the last 3 Super Bowls were some of the best Super Bowl finishes, in terms of excitement.  All three had unbelievable catches in do or die situations against the Patriots.  Luckily for the Patriots, Pete Carroll refused to use Marshawn Lynch and Malcolm Butler intercepted Russell Wilson.  This has been an amazing run for Belichick and Brady and they have given us great games, lets hope that Sunday is no different.

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Carolina Panthers: Where it went wrong

Projections

After posting a 15-1 win season in 2015, the Carolina Panthers were predicted to go 13-3 or 12-4 in preseason predictions.  They didn’t.  They fell short of preseason predictions and was analysts biggest miss. Where did it all go wrong?

David Newton for ESPN wrote:

The foundation that helped Carolina to an NFL-best 17-2 record (including playoffs) and a trip to the Super Bowl in 2015 for the most part remains intact. Blame an inexperienced secondary with three new starters, catastrophic injuries on the offensive line and inconsistent play by reigning NFL MVP Cam Newton for the huge step backward this past season. Middle linebacker Luke Kuechly’s absence in the final six games after suffering a concussion didn’t help either.

Offense

Their offense was all over the place.  One week they scored 46 points then the next week they scored 10.  They scored 25 points or more 7x and 16 points or fewer 6x’s.  Last year those numbers were completely different.  They scored 25 points or more 13x’s and under 16 points only once, which was the Super Bowl.  Without drastic changes to personnel, I would still say their transformation was more substantial than Bruce to Caitlyn Jenner’s.  Cam Newton, the offensive line, and losing Greg Norman headlined their decline.

Cam Newton

If Cam Newton was Superman last year, then consider him Robin’s sidekick after this year, his stats were pedestrian and his inconsistency showed up in the win column.

He had career lows in completion %, average yards per completion, QBR, and rating. He ranked last in the league in completion %, below Brock Osweiler and Fitzpatrick.  His touchdowns dropped from 35 to 19, and he threw more interceptions than any other year since his rookie season.  Besides a poor offensive line, what’s the problem?

Personally, I think what happened to Newton this year is the same thing that happened to Rocky III.  Rocky was pounded by Clubber Lang because he lost his eye of the tiger.  Cam was too well fed and lost his hunger.  He spent more time complaining about refs not calling hits on him and less time preparing and focusing on how to make plays.

Cam also complained that football wasn’t fun anymore.  Football isn’t fun?  That to me, explains his mental makeup.  He loves game day and being a superstar.  When the going gets tough Cam complains.  He needs to learn to enjoy the grind and be consistent.  Which is sad because has the Lebron James body of the NFL and this year he played like Dellavedova.

Offensive Line

Michael Oher, the only offensive lineman your wife might know, Ryan Kalil and Gino Gradkowski all were injured in the year.  These losses were too much and they weren’t able to protect Cam which helped result in Cam’s poor year.

Defensive Backs

David Newton for ESPN wrote:

2016 grade: D-plus. I debated going with a C-minus here because rookie corners James Bradberry and Daryl Worley showed marked improvement in the second half of the season. But it’s hard to ignore that starter Bene’ Benwikere was released after a Week 4 loss to Atlanta in which Julio Jones had 300 yards receiving. It’s hard to ignore that the corners played a major role in a 1-5 start from which the Panthers never fully recovered. It’s also hard to ignore the Panthers still ranked 28th in pass defense a year after ranking 11th in 2015 with Norman.

This says it all.

The Panthers were unable to build upon the success of 2015.  If Cam can humble himself, get back to work, and revive his career like the Italian Stallion, they can return to prominence.  Cam has all the tools, lets just see if he has the discipline.

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Preseason Predictions: Who saw it and who didn’t?

Every year after surviving months between the NFL draft and the first NFL game, websites everywhere make their preseason predictions.  Some people enjoy picking teams that have no business being there, for shock value, ie the Jaguars.  They back it up with stats, offseason acquisitions, coaches, and draft picks.  I like to review some of these predictions the week of down time before the Super Bowl.

Researching these preseason predictions, my biggest takeaway is that 75% were pretty spot on this year.  Everyone seemed to miss the same things.  The biggest misses were the Panthers and Cardinals taking a nose dive this year.  Most had those teams competing for a Super Bowl.  Many had the Colts followed by the Texans in the AFC South.  The biggest omission was the Falcons and Matt Ryan.  Matt Ryan wasn’t on anyone’s MVP list and the Falcons were pegged to be awful this year.

Plenty predicted the Cowboys good fortune  and  were accurate about the Raiders playoff birth.  Read on to see those who picked the Jets to make the playoffs.

CBS Sports

5 out of 7 CBS predictors predicted the Falcons to take last in the NFC South.
Only 1 of 7 predicted the Patriots in the Super Bowl.
All 7 of them had the Panthers as NFC South division winners
5 of the 7 had the Broncos as third in the AFC West.
1 had the Jets in the Playoffs.

ESPN

First Take

Max Kellerman and Stephen A. Smith did not Pick Falcons for playoffs
Stephen A. Smith picked the New York Jets to make the playoffs.

Commentators

0/43 Predicted Matt Ryan to win MVP
3 out of 43 picked Tom Brady for the MVP
0/43 picked Falcons as NFC Champ
17/43 picked the Patriots to play in the Super Bowl
6/43 picked Patriots as Super Bowl Champion

FS1

Colin Cowherd
Had Texans last in AFC south
*Guaranteed Andrew Luck will be an MVP Candidate
Had Falcons last in NFC South
Had Jets in playoffs
Predicted demise of Bengals
*Link

Skip Bayless

*Watch out for the Bears
*Did Pick Cowboys to win NFC East, 10-6 conservative
**Picked Chargers to win AFC West

*1st Video **2nd Video