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NFL Playoff Weekend Recap, and what I learned

I missed big on this playoff prediction

Rodgers torches Cowboys in Playoffs

This weekend we finally had some exciting playoff football games.  They didn’t come until Sunday, but both games came down to the end.  The above comics were my playoff predictions heading into the weekend, along, with Brady’s beat down of the Texans, which was far from Nostradamic.  So I  picked 2 out of the 3 games correctly.

Seattle

It is time to admit that Earl Thomas was key to Seattle’s defense.   The Seattle defense showed signs of decay after his injury and showed up against good offenses.  They gave up too many points against elite offenses and 20 points wasn’t going to beat the Falcons.

I have been stubborn to relegate the Seahawks from a great team to a good team, but not being able to flip the switch in the post season, consider them relegated.  Their offense can’t score enough and their defense now doesn’t keep them in games when the offense struggles.

Packers

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers look unbeatable.  The last throw to put them in field goal range was incredible.  The story goes that he drew that play up on the spot and just told each receiver what to do, grade school style.  All-time quarterbacks need all time stories.  Rodgers recent success with Hail Mary’s and making up a game saving plays on the spot are all time stories.  If he finishes this year off with a Super Bowl ring, he wil be added to the top tier of all-time quarterbacks.

Kansas City

Kansas City tastes playoff disappointment again.  A different season and we have the same story.  Holding the Steelers to just 18 points going against Roethlisberger, Brown, and Bell, is quite an accomplishment, only to have your offense  muster 16 points.  The Chiefs are consistently good, but never great as they exit the playoffs again.  Alex Smith is good, but not quite good enough.

 

 

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The Inevitable

John Breech describes the Patriots inevitably of going to the AFC Championship:

You know you’re in trouble when the oddsmakers in Vegas have basically given up on you. That is kind of what has happened here with the Texans. Houston is a 16-point underdog in this game, which I’m only letting you know because it’s the largest playoff point spread in 18 years.

The Texans have played at New England four times in franchise history and they’ve been blown out every time (27-0 in 2016, 41-28 in the 2012 playoffs, 42-14 in 2012 regular season, 40-7 in 2006).

To give you an idea of how hopeless things are for the Texans, the odds say that Tom Brady has a better chance of being elected president in 2020 than the Texans do of winning this game.

Sean Tomlinson from Bleacher Report talks about the Texans only chance:

Now the Texans’ ability to pull off a colossal upset as 16-point underdogs (per OddsShark) doesn’t rest with the quarterback, as it so often does in the playoffs. Brock Osweiler is still a liability and free-agency bust despite his brief flashes of competence Sunday.

It rests with running back Lamar Miller to some degree… it rests with wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins a bit, too, but he was wasted by Osweiler in 2016 and finished with just 954 receiving yards.

…That’s where Clowney comes in with his ability to be a constant menace…The hallmark of a dominant pass-rusher often lies in how much they can tear down the opposing offense and alter plays even when not recording sacks. That’s what Clowney did frequently against the Raiders, a game that ended with four pressures from the 23-year-old.

The Patriots are going to roll the Texans and roll them big. They have a superior offense, coaching, quarterback, experience and team. They are playing at home and I give the Texans no chance at all. In sports, we always know that upsets can and do happen. Any doubt that Patriot fans may have is how Osweiler beat them last November with a good defense and an out of character successful performance.

The key to any and all QB’s from Bart Starr to Tom Brady is to hit the quarterback. Any and all quarterbacks play significantly worse when they don’t have time and they are constantly getting hit. This isn’t good analysis, it is the key to beating any quarterback. The Texans finished with the Top Defense in the league and if they can hit Brady early and often it will be much more difficult for the Patriots. This is how Denver beat the Patriots last year.

They had an incredible defense that hit Brady over and over. It keeps the game low scoring and gives them a chance. Osweiler was the quarterback last year in that Denver game and he threw some great passes and beat the Patriots last year. If the impossible happens, that will be how.

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Aaron Rodgers Inferiority Complex

The best game of Wild Card Weekend, will be the Giants and the Packers.

Cameron DaSilva, from Fox Sports writes:

The Packers’ pass rush will get to Eli Manning

Through Week 12, [Eli Manning] had a passer rating of just 67.7 versus blitzes and 96.2 when four or fewer rushers were sent at him. When pressured, he’s coaxed into mistakes.

Eli Manning isn’t playing well

Eli Manning is not playing good football. Since Week 13, he has a passer rating of just 77.0 with six touchdowns and six interceptions.

Green Bay’s offensive line is great

In their first meeting back in October, the Giants didn’t sack Rodgers once. The pressure rarely got to him in the pocket as he was able to remain comfortable, going through his progressions. If the Giants can’t put pressure on Rodgers, he’s going to either find an open receiver or he’ll escape the pocket and burn them with scramble drills, allowing his targets to shake free.

John Breech, from CBS Sports, is predicting the Giants to win:

I’m guessing the reason Odell and the other Giants receivers went down to South Beach on Sunday night is because they were celebrating the fact that everyone in the Packers secondary is injured. The Giants’ receivers might be playing against air in this game, and I’m only slightly exaggerating.

…The Giants are basically the worst possible matchup that the Packers could’ve asked for in the wild-card round. Green Bay is going to need a perfect game from Aaron Rodgers…It’s going to be tough for Rodgers to be perfect when he’s being pressured on nearly every play, which is likely to happen Sunday.

 …By the time this game is over, Rodgers and Tom Brady are going to have to start a support group for quarterbacks who inexplicably lose every big game they play against Eli Manning.

My pick is for the Packers to win the game.  Aaron Rodgers has risen and righted the sinking ship rebuilding a stronger engine in the process.  Packer fans are finally getting the team they have expected for two years now.  Jordy Nelson is back to form and I would be shocked for the Giants to go in Lambeau and win again.  But, then again this wouldn’t be the first time that Eli Manning would have shocked me.

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